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Prediction of the Mudflow Phenomena and Their Influence on the Natural and Economic System of the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus (Within Azerbaijan). P. 38–49

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Tarikhazer Stara Abul’faz gyzy
Institute of Geography named after acad. H.A. Aliyev of ANAS, Baku State University (Baku, Azerbaijan)
Alekperova Samira Ogtay gyzy
Institute of Geography named after acad. H.A. Aliyev of ANAS (Baku, Azerbaijan)


Mudflows refer to the dangerous relief forming processes. Wide development of favorable natural conditions for mudflows formation increases the risk of occurrence of the dangerous situations bearing social disasters and leading to the massive financial loss. In the paper the geomorphological structure of a southern slope of the Greater Caucasus – a site of the interfluve of the Geychay and the Girdymanchay rivers, which is characterized by frequent mudflow processes, is considered. This fact is due to the intense recent tectonic movements, arid climate, etc. The presented diagrammatic map of the mudflows phenomena of the rivers Geychay and Girdymanchay area is compiled on the basis of interpretation of the satellite images. It helps to define degree of mudflow hazard of the specific area, the main mudflows passages, as well as to get the information about the types of mudflows and their genesis. Five categories of mudflow hazard are defined: 1) very tense areas with a high level of mudflow hazard (5 points) – one strong mudflow is possible once in 2-3 years; 2) tense areas with an average risk of mudflow hazard (4 points) – one strong mudflow is possible once in 3-5 years; 3) areas with weak mudflow hazard (3 points) – one strong mudflow is possible once in 5-10 years; 4) areas with potential mudflow hazard (2 points); 5) areas without the mudflow phenomena (1 point). At the compiled diagrammatic map of the rivers Geychay and Girdymanchay interfluve a large number of settlements, economic objects and new buildings constructed ignoring mudflow hazard are identified. On the basis of the analysis of statistical sources the table reflecting dynamics of a population development (as of 1999–2009) in the mudflow dangerous basins is drawn up.


prediction of mudflow phenomena, mudflow danger, mudflow activity, southern slope of the Greater Caucasus
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