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Modelling of Distribution Area and Analysis of Factors Contribution in Climatic Niche of Parnassius mnemosyne L. 1758 (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). P. 56–67

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Section: Biology




Bolotov Ivan Nikolaevich
Institute of Ecological Problems of the North, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Arkhangelsk, Russia)
Frolov Artem Andreevich
Institute of Ecological Problems of the North, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Arkhangelsk, Russia)


The paper by the geoinformation method clarifies the boundaries of distribution range and locations of a red-listed butterfly Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne Linnaeus 1758). The territorial suitability of the area for the species habitation with respect to the climatic variables is determined. According to the data from 3130 observation sites and captures obtained from the Russian Museum of the Biodiversity Hotspots of the Institute of Ecological Problems of the North, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, literature data, GBIF base and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim base the multidimensional analysis of climatic niche by maximum entropy method was carried out as well as the factors affecting the present Clouded Apollo distribution are clarified. The main climatic affecting factors of P. mnemosyne distribution at the species area territory are the next: the annual precipitation (positive dependence, the contribution of this variable is 50.7 %), minimum temperature of the coldest month (negative dependence, the contribution of this variable is 19.7 %), average yearly temperature (positive dependence, the contribution of this variable is 12.5 %). All of the observed climatic factors can affect on the distribution area both directly and through the food reserve - different plants of genus Corydalis DC, 1805, essential for a Clouded Apollo oligotroph lepidopterous larva. We conducted the forecasting of distribution range change through the middle and the second part of the 21st century using different climate change scenarios. According to the prognoses the territory of suitable habitat and climatic optima can be shifted into the northeastern direction. The probable distribution areas may increase in the central and northwestern territories of Russia and some declining may occur in the present climatic optima at the Central and Southern Europe.


Parnassius mnemosyne, geoinformation systems, maximum entropy method, butterflies, suitable habitat
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